IntegrityFX Weekly Calendar Outlook

There is little information coming out of the US this week at all. Most of the scheduled important news will be on the GBP. The British central bank sees inflation as currently rising but believes it to be temporary, so higher than expected inflation should not impact the markets much. Overall it is a quiet week on the news front so look for more technical trades than fundamental ones, especially range based trades.

Monday

No major events.

Tuesday

9:30 GMT

The release of the latest CPI data out of the UK will have little to no impact on the GBP, baring a very strong reading. Inflation is already expected to be very high in the UK and they are still not raising rates to combat it. If the data shows inflation above 3% then the head of the central bank must write a letter discussing why inflation was so far off topic. Most likely we will see this letter, and it will most likely state that the bank will still be holding, since they believe the inflation to be temporary.

10:00 GMT

The German ZEW survey has shown to vary greatly in its market impact. Sometimes it causes violent swings and others it goes by unnoticed. This release looks to be one of the stronger impacting ones given the precarious situation in Greece and Germany’s role in the bailout of the debt ridden country.

Wednesday

9:30 GMT

There are two releases out of the UK at this time. The first is the change in unemployment claims, it has been in a down trend so the risk here is for a higher than expected reading, especially a reading above zero. The second release is the minutes from the last monetary policy meeting minutes. It is expected to be a unanimous vote for hold but a single vote for a rate hike would send GBP soaring.

19:00 GMT

Similar to the central bank minutes out of the UK, the minutes out of the US are expected to be unanimous and showing solidarity among its members, so any evidence to the contrary would have a very strong effect on the market. Watch for anything that implies a rate hike on the horizon.

Thursday

13:30 GMT

The PPI data is the first of two inflation based data out of the US this week. Look for inflation to creep up a bit, if it comes in high enough, it could spark fears of a sooner than expected rate hike.

22:30 GMT

It is difficult to predict what impact a central banker has when he speaks. This time, however, the head of Australia’s central bank will be speaking, and expect it to have an impact. Last decision was to hold after three hikes so his testimony should give insight as to if this was just a breather or the beginning of a holding phase.

Friday

13:30 GMT

The second part of this US inflation data will be released, don’t expect any impact unless it contradicts Thursday’s number.