IntegrityFX Weekly Calendar Outlook

Only a few times a year does a week like this happen. We get four interest rate decisions. They come from Australia, Canada, the UK and the EU. Sadly only one of these is expected to actually change their interest rate, but that makes this week no less significant. The most important aspect of a rate decision is the accompanying statement from the central bank, hopefully giving insight to what their next decision will be.

Monday

13:30 GMT

GDP out of Canada had a good reading on Monday; it was 0.20% above expectations, and gave significant strength to CAD

15:00 GMT

The manufacturing PMI came out below expectations but was still above 50, which is in expansionary levels. The market reacted favorably to this news.

Tuesday

0:30 GMT

Before their rate decision, there will be two news releases out of Australia: building approvals and retail sales. They are both expected to be positive, but building approvals is expected to be lower than last month while sales are expected to be on the rise, look for a reaction on stronger numbers, since the central bank is expecting the economy to return to a moderate growth.

3:30 GMT

Australia’s is the week’s first rate decision and the only one expected to change. They held steady last time after a series of rate hikes and are expected to increase their rate by 0.25%. Look for their statement to point to a hold in their next meeting, which could weigh on AUD

14:00 GMT

The Canadian interest rate decision follows the Australians. They will be holding steady at 0.25%. It is unlikely that they will be raising rates for some time now. They do not want CAD to be too strong and would like it to find support significantly above parity.

Wednesday

0:30 GMT

Australian GDP will be released and is expected to come in at 0.9%. Since the bank is expecting a return to normal growth rates, a higher than expected GDP would be quite market moving.

Thursday

0:30 GMT

The Australian trade balance will be released, and like the GDP numbers the risk is for too strong numbers.

12:00 GMT

Since the BoE will be holding rates steady we will not be hearing a statement out of that central bank.

12:45 GMT

The ECB will be holding their rate steady as well; however they will release a statement, about an hour later, but don’t expect much in terms of the timing of the next rate hike.

15:00 GMT

The Canadian PMI is released on Thursday; it is expected to move significantly into the expansionary levels, which should strengthen CAD.

Friday

9:30 GMT

Early GBP inflation data will be released in the form of PPI numbers. Remember that the BoE is expecting that inflation will come down over time so if this comes in above expectations the chance of a rate hike at the next decision could be greatly increased.

13:30 GMT

The unemployment rate is expected to tick up a small amount, however it could easily come in under expectations giving the market something to buy risk on.

Analysis , AUD , CAD , Economic Calendar , EUR , Forex , Fundamental , GBP , USD

David Leal 1 Comment March 1st, 2010