IntegrityFX Weekly Economic Calendar Outlook

This past week saw a reversal of the traditional relationship between the dollar and equities. Normally they move in the opposite direction, but the run up in stocks was met with a strengthening of the dollar. This is not the first time it has happened but it is becoming more common. Could we be seeing a fundamental shift in the relationship between the dollar and risk?

In the week ahead, the main news event is the release of US unemployment data. We also get a good amount of data from the UK and Australia. The release of news starts out slow but picks up on Wednesday.

Monday 3/29

No important events.

Tuesday 3/30

14:00 GMT U.S. Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence has been hovering around 50 and 60, this release will have no impact around those levels. A particularly high reading above 70 could spark some risk taking in the markets but it is unlikely that this will be an impacting event.

Wednesday 3/31

0:30 GMT Australian Building Approvals and Retail Sales

Neither of these normally have a strong effect on the market. But they should both serve to reinforce the accumulated strength of the Australian dollar.

12:15 GMT ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

The trend for this release is becoming more positive and is approaching a positive number. If it does it will be the first positive reading since July 2008. I would anticipate a strong, if short lived reaction to a positive data release, which would increase expectations for a fall in the unemployment rate.

12:30 GMT Canadian GDP

Aside from the massive run up on Monday, the Canadian dollar is the only currency that the US dollar has lost strength against this week, showing the amazing resilience of the Canadian dollar. The GDP numbers will reflect this, although a reading above expected is highly unlikely.

Thursday 4/1

0:30 GMT Australian Trade Balance

I am expecting better than the forecast on this one, however it won’t be enough to break AUDUSD out of its current trading range. A hint of an imminent rate hike would be needed for that to happen.

8:30 GMT British Manufacturing PMI

This has been in expansionary levels for a few months now, and the expectations are for no change. It looks more likely that it would fall a bit, although I don’t think that will be enough for people to hate the Pound more than they already do.

14:00 GMT ISM Manufacturing PMI

Much like the British version of this number, it is in expansionary levels but unlikely to be increasing at this time. A very strong reading would be necessary for this to be impacting.

Friday 4/2

12:30 GMT U.S. Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Employment Change

This is the most important news release of the week. The downtrend in unemployment has continued, and I continue to expect better than forecasted data for this. Typically estimates are overly pessimistic in a downtrend in unemployment.