IntegrityFX Weekly Economic Calendar Outlook

The effect of the unemployment data on the market was enhanced by the thin trading volume that the week closed on. Although this was the strongest and first positive reading since January 2008, it was not strong enough to incite confidence in the market. The dollar rose on risk aversion due to fears of too weak job growth.

Next week opens up on thin trading due to Easter Monday in Europe. There are also three interest rate decisions coming out of Australia, England and the ECB. There is also a Japanse interest rate decision, but don’t expect anything out of it.

Monday 3/29

14:00 GMT ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Pending Home Sales

The ISM and home sales data could be more significant than normal due to the below average liquidity on Monday. Traders should be aware of this.

Tuesday 3/30

4:30 GMT Cash Rate and Rate Statement

The Australian rate decision is expected to be up twenty-five basis points. AUDUSD will fall hard if this doesn’t happen. If the statement confirms that they will be continuing to increase rates look for AUDUSD to break above its highs.

Wednesday 3/31

8:30 British Services PMI

The expectation is for a slight decline but still within the expansionary levels. It would take a reading far off from expectations to have an effect on the market.

14:00 GMT Canadian Ivey PMI

Canada has shown itself to be a very resilient currency. The PMI data is expected to see a modest increase; this could be quite a boost to CAD strength

17:30 GMT Bernanke Q&A

His speech is never the important part. What is important is the question and answer section. With rumors of a change in the discount rate, this could be an important even if they do increase the rate.

Thursday 4/1

1:30 GMT Australian Employment Change and Rate

Even though 20K new jobs are expected the unemployment rate is not expected to change. Given that we will get an interest rate statement two days before this, it is unlikely to be an impacting event.

11:00 GMT BoE Official Bank Rate

This is only of significance if we get a rate hike, which is not likely to happen. If it does, look for massive GBP strength.

12:30 ECB Interest Rate Statement

The actual rate change comes in and hour and a half before this but since it will most likely not change the statement is far more important here, although I believe Trichet will only reiterate what he has stated in the past, rate hikes to come at the end of the year.

Friday 4/2

0:30 GMT Bernanke Q&A

More question and answer out of Bernanke, this is less likely to be impacting since he will be doing the Q&A session on Wednesday

11:00 GMT Canadian Unemployment Change and Rate

This looks to be strong for CAD as the employment situation is expected to show further strengthening out of Canada.