AUDUSD Weighing on the Carry Trade
By David Leal, Market Analyst | Thursday, April 15th, 2010 22:46 UTC
AUDJPY, USDJPY and CADJPY are all looking like strong buys at this point. Even GBPJPY is beginning to break above its downtrend. And while EURJPY is lagging behind the bunch, the biggest hindrance in the carry trade looks to be AUDUSD. Without AUDUSD making new highs, it is unlikely that the yen pair can continue their upward momentum.
The movement in the S&P has been favorable to the carry trade. It moved sideways today and well above 1200. Expect a test of the 1200 level before we see some significant gains. If 1200 is tested and holds, look for opportunities in the carry trade, especially in AUDJPY.
Fundamentally, there is not much behind this increase in risk appetite. Sure, the unemployment situation in the US is showing improvement, and the Greece situation is moving closer toward resolution, but this is not exactly recent news.
Tomorrow will be telling for what to expect in the near term. The most positive scenario is a test and validation of the 1200 support level in the S&P, which would signal a continuation of the risk appetite.
April 15th, 2010
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