Where is the Bottom in AUDUSD?
By David Leal, Market Analyst | Friday, May 7th, 2010 02:08 UTC
Last week I wrote that I expected a large drop in AUDUSD if the RBA signaled that they would be holding rates steady. Well they did, and boy did we get a drop. The pair has fallen down to the 0.8800 level. The 0.8600 level still stands as a strong support level, and I believe that the week’s trend of a falling AUDUSD will continue into tomorrow.
As far as tomorrow’s unemployment rate goes, Yohay Elam of ForexCrunch.com writes that “a drop up to 9.5% or a rise to 9.9% won’t make a difference”, and I agree with him. There is a good chance that this move will bring AUDUSD down to its support near 0.8600. This would be much sooner than I expected, but the market doesn’t really care what I think.
Whether USD will continue to gain strength into next week, is a hard call to make at this point. But, generally if we have a strong negative week, the next week opens to the upside, so I would not want to be in an AUDUSD short over the weekend. Of course I wouldn’t want to be long either.
Analysis , AUD , Forex , USD 
May 7th, 2010
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